·The next three years will be the key period for independent brands to stay strong and weaken

After the “11 consecutive declines” in the market share of self-owned brand passenger vehicles, will it still fall into the “twelve consecutive declines”? This answer is about to be announced in the near future, and it is expected that there will still be no good news.

In an interview with the Nanfang Daily reporter, experts in the automotive industry said that the deep adjustment of the self-owned brand car is expected to last for about one year, and it is expected to rebound after that. From the perspective of the big development pattern, this will also be a process of reinventing the independent brand. In the next three years, it will enter a critical period of deep differentiation and staying weak.

August market is not optimistic

According to the latest market monitoring data of the Association, the wholesale sales volume of autos in August was slower than expected, and it is expected that it will not reach the previous forecast of 1.42 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 13%. One of the reasons is that due to the lack of accurate information on the subsidy policy for energy-saving vehicles, some manufacturers are still waiting to see the adjustment period, while dealer inventory is still being digested.

In the beginning of August, the retail sales of passenger cars were in the weakest period, down 4% from the beginning of July and up 2% year-on-year. The situation is quite abnormal. According to analysis, due to the large purchase overdraft caused by the previous purchase restriction, the retail sales in August did not appear to be expected to be hot. At the beginning of the month, the association expected to retail 1.37 million vehicles in August, up 13% year-on-year. Currently, it is slightly lower than the expected 20,000 units, and the retail performance is relatively stable.

Therefore, the August auto market is still in a trend of rebounding from the bottom. In this context, it is expected that self-owned brand passenger cars will also be difficult to reverse. Cui Dongshu, an analyst at the Association, believes that the downturn cycle of self-owned brand passenger cars will be more than one year, and then it will gradually rebound.

"The next three years is very crucial." Zhang Baolin, president of Changan Automobile, told the Nanfang Daily reporter that the automobile technology will accelerate development in the next three years, and regulations such as emissions and fuel consumption are becoming stricter. There may even be cases where regulations may cause a manufacturer to survive.

Huang Huaqiong, assistant general manager of Chery Automobile, believes that the serious refinement of the self-owned brand this year is also a normal situation. Because the independent brand has experienced a happy stage of free growth, the current strategic transformation in the market pressure will inevitably lead to a decline in market share.

“High quality and low price” against joint venture brands

Huang Huaqiong therefore believes that it is not possible to look at the decline or growth of sales, but whether the company can change from pursuing sales to pursuing quality. As companies deepen their transformation, there may be a more qualitative rebound behind the current downturn.

In recent years, car companies that are able to reshape the R&D system have gained more space and opportunities. From the perspective of a number of self-owned brand passenger car products that have recently entered the market, the competitiveness has also been significantly improved. "The structural changes in the future automobile market are inevitable, and there will inevitably be a survival of the fittest." Huang Huaqiong believes that independent brands must completely jump out of the "low quality and low price" cycle, and there is no shortcut, but still need to do a good job in products and services. And the brand these three things. "It turned out to be low quality and low price. Now we have to enter the stage of high quality and low price. Through this stage, we can truly achieve high quality and high price, otherwise the brand premium will never be achieved."

Zhang Baolin believes that independent brands must solidly integrate global advantages and resources to make products, and then they can break through the current threshold of 100,000 yuan, and cannot rush to do high-end from the market. "For example, if you do a Changan 200,000 yuan car now, it is estimated that no one bought it."

At the same time, with the development of the market, independent brand manufacturers must also strengthen the alliance. "The United Nations must first have a consensus, and when everyone feels that they can't live, they will face the crisis together," Zhang Baolin said.

"Exit export" must have excellent products

Due to the continuous decline of automobile exports, self-owned brands are currently suffering from internal and external difficulties, and they cannot use exports to make up for the decline in the domestic market. In the near future, including Changan, GAC and other independent brand leaders, began to strategically layout the international market, and pay more attention to the brand from the beginning. Changan has recently entered the Russian market, and Guangzhou Automobile Chuanqi is the first to deploy the Middle East market.

Zhang Baolin believes that Changan must have excellent products and brands in the international market. It is not reflected in some companies' foreign products. It is focused on some important markets, including Russia, Brazil, and Iran. The factory will be built again; in addition, we will focus on products and services and improve the competitiveness of the international market as a whole.


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